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Fox Forward - A worthy, but misguided initiative

I recently received an invitation to submit sessions for the new Fox Forward conference being organized by Kevin Cully and co in Atlanta for September of this year. While I applaud their initiative in trying to start up a new, and (supposedly) different kind of conference I have to say that I think that their timing is appalling given that SW Fox (now the ONLY VFP oriented conference that we have left to us on this side of the Atlantic) was already scheduled, and announced for Mid-October. I can see no real benefit from this initiative, but I do see a very real risk of genuine long term harm to the FoxPro Community.

It’s bad enough that Advisor has scheduled its DevCon for Phoenix at the end of August, and I have commented on that decision elsewhere, but one can at least rationalize that the target audience for Advisor DevCon is ‘different’ than for SW Fox (if only because of the relatively high cost of the conference and the fact that it tends to focus more on strategic issues than day-to-day developer problems).

By scheduling a “developer-oriented” conference for the weekend of September 15-17, when SW Fox is already scheduled for October 19 – 22 (less than 5 weeks later) the risk is that it will attract some of the people who would otherwise go to SW Fox. Whether this was the intent, or not, I deplore this timing and consider it to be deliberately and willfully harmful to the VFP Community as a whole and, if you agree with me I urge you to let the organizers know – you can reach Kevin by E-Mail at  kcully@cullytechnologies.com

I recall only too well the effect that DevTeach had on the Dev Essentials conference a couple of years ago. They only took a few (20 or 25 I think) people who would otherwise have gone to Dev Essentials that year, but it was enough that Dev Essentials failed to reach its break even point, lost a lot of money and was never held again. Now I see that Dev Teach has dropped VFP entirely from this year’s conference and so the direct result of their action has been the demise of what was a very good conference. How did that help the VFP Community?

I see precisely the same danger here. By hosting a conference in Atlanta only 5 weeks before SW Fox it will clearly be attractive to people from the South-Eastern states who (being conference goers anyway) would otherwise probably go to SW Fox. I would guess (though I don’t know for sure) that last year SW Fox probably had at least 10 people who came from Georgia, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina and Alabama (i.e. from within a 4+ hour drive to Atlanta). The prospect of a local (and hence cheaper) alternative would, perfectly understandably, be an attractive option.

However, even as few as 10 lost delegates would be a significant percentage of the attendees at SW Fox and to lose them would be a serious blow to the viability of the conference  and this is why I consider this a misguided effort. Hopefully this can be re-scheduled for a more appropriate time but if not, then so be it. I would much rather that this unknown quantity failed now than risk it damaging the existing, and very much "known quantity" of the SW Fox Conference.

So, if you are really interested in the future of the FoxPro Community as a whole, and want to support it, I strongly urge you to reject this potentially damaging initiative and sign up for SW Fox as soon as registration open on 1st March.

 

Published Wednesday, February 15, 2006 5:14 PM by andykr

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# re: Fox Forward - A worthy, but misguided initiative

Thursday, February 16, 2006 3:21 PM by Frank Milhofer
A couple things here, I agree the timing isn't ideal, but if an 8-12 week lapse between conferences is ideal, it's going to draw attendees away from other conferences no matter what month it's held. I suppose he could have aimed for January, but attending a conference right after the holiday doesn't seem ideal. I imagine most people are playing catch up around this time.

Secondly, if SW Fox winds up losing 10 delegates, but Foxforward winds up drawing 100 developers in the immediate region that wouldn't have gone to a conference otherwise, then I would say it did more good than harm.

I've never been to SW Fox, but I've heard nothing but good things about it ( I plan on trying to attend myself this year). If I had to guess, most people who attended years prior will keep attending since they've experienced it's wonders first hand.

While I'm not familiar with the economics of running a conference, or the number of past attendees at SW Fox, if losing 10 attendees would be a serious blow to the conference, it's on thin ice to begin with. Plus, with the great word of mouth SW Fox has had, maybe it will add 25-30 first timers this year which make of for the 10 and then some.

# re: Fox Forward - A worthy, but misguided initiative

Thursday, February 16, 2006 7:43 PM by andy kramek
Hi Frank
Firstly you must remember that conference attendances (especially for specific product or tool oriented conferences) are down everywhere and so all such are on "thin ice" (see my August Weblog for one speculation on the reason)
Second I never said, or even implied that 8-12 weeks is the ideal separation. FWIW I think the ideal separation is more like 4-5 months! If that means only three conferences a year then that is the right number.
The real problem I have with this initiative is not that it might attract people who would otherwise not attend a conference but that it might stop someone who, without its existence would otherwise have gone to SW Fox. I don't suppose there will be many, but as Bob Kocher (the organizer of SW Fox) confirmed to me after I poted this Blog Entry - his attendance last year was only SEVEN over the "break even" number....!
Thin Ice? Yes. But that's no reason to take a blowtorch to it - which is what I see the Atlanta crowd doing.

# re: Fox Forward - A worthy, but misguided initiative

Thursday, February 16, 2006 9:30 PM by Frank Milhofer
Hi Andy -
I didn't mean for it to sound like you suggested the 8-12 week range. That's something I pulled off the top of my head based on the fact that the GLDWS is held in April (which I'll be attending), followed by Advisor DevCon in August, and SW Fox in October. Because I can only get away with attending a couple conferences a year, i agree with you that 4-5 months is an ideal separation - at least for my circumstances. Next year though, I'm determined to go to the German Devcon.

# re: Fox Forward - A worthy, but misguided initiative

Friday, February 17, 2006 1:59 PM by andy kramek
Hi Frank

Look forward to seeing you in Milwaukee then! As for the German Devcon, let's hope that it is still there 'next year'... Like all conferences its attendance was down last year and it is onlyl if people actually go that these conferences will survive

# re: Fox Forward - A worthy, but misguided initiative

Sunday, February 19, 2006 6:51 AM by Dave Bernard
Hi Andy-

Our company is a sponsor of FoxForward and is a strong supporter of the local Fox community here (I serve on the board of AFUG and our company helps sponsor the group).

I'm a frequent conference attendee and sometime reporter or speaker, including non-Fox conferences such as SQL Pass, RFID Journal Live! and SpeechTek. A friend of mine who owned an IT training company once told me that "training is free" because you typically get so much more out of it than you pay.

I say this because I want to make two points. One, I lament the lack of opportunity in general that corporations provide for staff to attend one conference per year, much less more than one. This is underscored by an implied point you make: conferences compete for the (limited) dollars of employer training budgets (if any). Few, if any, employees are going to burn leave time and their own money to attend conferences..

Point two: my experience is that the various US Fox conferences are, and have always been, very regionalized in their attendance. GLGDW was disproportionately attended by folks from the upper Midwest, DevTeach the Northeast, SWFox was a place overwhelmingly populated with Left Coasters, etc. DevEssentials had perhaps the most balance due to its central US location. The Southeast has been largely underrepresented, except for the odd DevCon over the years. I haven't attended a DevCon in quite some time because I don't believe it approaches SWFox and others for value.

A great many Fox developers in the SouthEast will not attend these other conferences; having one in easy-to-access Atlanta fills the geograhic gap neatly (add Florida to your list, too). I don't think it will have a material affect on SW Fox or any other Fox conference in the US.

In all likelihood, FoxForward II will be in a different time slot, if it survives. The chosen dates were more a function of adequate lead time at idea inception than anything else.

Does FoxForward pose a risk to the VFP community? Of course. Does FoxForward bring a whole new group of developers and users to the Fox conference community. Of course. I think the value of the latter outweighs the former.

For the record, I'll be attending ALL US Fox conferences this year, except for DevCon. I'm hoping to add at least one of the non-US Fox conferences, too.

# re: Fox Forward - A worthy, but misguided initiative

Monday, February 20, 2006 1:27 PM by andykr@tightlinecomputers.com
Hi Dave

You said: " I don't think it will have a material affect on SW Fox or any other Fox conference in the US"

I happen to disagree for the reasons that I gave in the blog.

But more to the point, even the RISK that it might have a material affect on SW Fox is the issue here.

SW Fox is the only truly VFP-Developer oriented conference left in the US (Sorry, but even with your sponsorship Fox Forward is still an unknown quantity!

As I said, I cannot see any possible benefit in holding a conference so close to SW Fox. Why not wait a little longer? Hold it in January, or next Spring when there is NO possibility of competing with, and damaging, an established conference.

As it is, the timing looks (even if it isn't) malicious!

Especially as you have already said that Fox Forward will probably move if it does survive. How else should anyone interpet this than

"Let's see if we can kill SW Fox and then see who we need to get next" ?

# re: Fox Forward - A worthy, but misguided initiative

Monday, February 20, 2006 6:06 PM by Dave Bernard
Andy-

We'll have to agree to disagree on issue of potential impact. As an entreprenuer, risk aversion is a deadly disease. We've decided to take a calculated risk by supporting this unknown quantity of a conference. Risking sponsorship money is not new to us (we've sponsored the Atlanta FoxPro Users group and VFUG, too), and doesn't always pay off.

Speaking of risk, I think we should applaud the folks in Atlanta for taking on the risk of filling a large gap in (geographic) conference coverage. Even the posts in this blog postulate only a possible loss of a handful of attendees; I think Frank's point earlier about "thin ice" is right on the mark. Let Bob raise prices $20/head if he needs to to get above that break even point. With the buzz from last year, Bob's margin of victory should be substantially greater, regardless of the existence of a new conference.

Our company wants to help out all we can; the VFP community has been very good to us over the years. However, in our humble opinion, you can't steer a boat if it isn't moving. Adding a regional conference has great potential to reach a heretofore untapped audience. It adds buzz and critical mass to the VFP community. If there's a sponsorship we can provide at SW Fox 2006, perhaps helping to keep them in the black, then we'll do it (I already have a call into Bob; it's not apparent on their web site how to do that). I agree that it's the best conference for the money out there, and very important for the VFP community.

Your points are well-taken, Andy; I'll buy you a beer or two in Milwaukee in a couple of months ;) so that we can grease an even livlier discussion!

Dave

# re: Fox Forward - A worthy, but misguided initiative

Monday, February 20, 2006 8:05 PM by andykr
>> We've decided to take a calculated risk by supporting this unknown quantity of a conference.

That is your decision. What I object to is the potential harm that this conference could do to another - that is NOT an unknown quantity.

>> Speaking of risk, I think we should applaud the folks in Atlanta for taking on the risk of filling a large gap in (geographic) conference coverage

But if it costs us SW Fox it will not have been worth it!

Look, you are making a lot of noise about "supporting the community" but your actions in supporting a conference whose timing is such that it can only draw off support from SW Fox say different.

You cannot seriously believe that there are hordes of VFP Developers sitting around in the Atlanta region saying "Oh I wish there was a local conference that I could go to since I can't possibly go to SW Fox"

Who ARE you going to get  if not those people in your area who are already disposed to go to a conference and who would otherwise support SW Fox?

No matter what you say, there is finite pool of VFP conference attendees and putting ion a second conference so close to SW Fox is going to dilute that pool. The consequences of that dilution can ONLY be harmful and THAT is the reality!

# re: Fox Forward - A worthy, but misguided initiative

Tuesday, February 21, 2006 7:04 AM by Dave Bernard
Andy-

I will say it here, very directly: FoxForward will NOT materially affect SWFox this year. Bob can easily measure that after his conference is over. I am as confident as you are not that this will be fact when all the smoke clears. SWFox will not only survive, but will thrive.

I DO seriously believe that there are [many/enough] VFP developers in the Atlanta region saying just that ("Oh, I wish there was a conference..."). We've heard it ourselves for years; that's part of the impetus for this endeavor.  

Of course the pool of potential attendees is finite; it's equal to the number of VFP developers. The number of real attendees is a tiny percentage of that number; if you're in marketing, you see opportunity in the spread. I don't think we've come close to tapping all the ones who want to go; conferences draw regionally, and certain regions have been left out. The Atlanta region is not necessarily special, it's just been ignored. I think getting 50-60 people to go to FoxForward is quite reasonable, and it wouldn't surprise me if it turns out to be much more than that. Out of that number, I doubt that hardly any of them were planning on SWFox anyway; I certainly have seen very few people from down this way at VFP conferences in recent years. I'd bet a conference held in Washington, Philly or Northern NJ would see tremendous attendance, just do to the simple law of averages.

If this conference dilutes SWFox by three or four people, which I believe is pushing it, and FoxForward gains 50 attendees, then a very positive result has been obtained on all sides.

You're blowing the potential risk all out of proportion to the potential benefit. We'll just have to count the chickens on October 23rd; that's the only way we'll know.

Dave

# re: Fox Forward - A worthy, but misguided initiative

Tuesday, February 21, 2006 1:02 PM by andykr
Dave

We will have to agree to differ on this one. You see it as no problem with a real benefits in the long term.  I see it's timing as a completely unnecessary risk that offers no real benefits whatsoever.

Most of all I fail to see why is it so much better to hold this conference 5 weeks before SW Fox than at some other, non-conflicting date? Would all these dedicated regional conference goers that you are so sure exist disappear, or be less likely to attend at some other time?

As I have said repeatedly, it is not the initiative I object to, merely the timing. I hope that you are right and that it will not damage SW Fox, but I worry that you may be wrong.

# re: Fox Forward - A worthy, but misguided initiative

Tuesday, February 21, 2006 4:24 PM by andykr
Dave,

I forgot to mention...

As I am sure you will agree, GLGDW is a good example of a Regional Conference. While many of the attendees are indeed local, the currrent list of 72 attendees includes people from 22 States and Provinces, including the Atlanta "region"

Q. E. D. !

# re: Fox Forward - A worthy, but misguided initiative

Sunday, March 12, 2006 9:18 AM by Allen Pollard
Having just heard that Prague is now in September and that it will contain .net and sql server parts, I am looking at Fox forward, airline costs permitting, as it is a resonable cost unlike other US conferences. What Im saying is I would not be going to SW fox anyway but it would be taking me away from Prague, which is a much nicer place than Atlanta, isnt it Andy.

# re: Fox Forward - A worthy, but misguided initiative

Sunday, March 12, 2006 1:02 PM by andykr
Hi Allen

I have never been to Atlanta (and have no intention of going) so I can't tell you if it is a better or worse than Prague - which IS a very nice place I agree.

If I understand what you are saying, you won't go to Prague because it will include sessions on .NET and SQL Server?  I hate to worry you but I think it highly likely that Fox Forward will have more non-FoxPro content than any other Fox conference (with the possible exception of Advisor DevCon). Looking at their presentation ideas I see all sorts of non-Fox topics (of course we still have no idea what their speaker list/topics will actually be)

We do know that SW Fox is dedicated to promoting and supporting VFP Developers and that it has a track record for excellence in both its Speakers and Topics.

Only you can decide where to spend your conference time/money but "per day" cost will probably end up being comparable anyway by the time you factor in flights, food and accommodation. Remember too that SW Fox is a whole day longer than Fox Forward and will also probably have more tracks (it has had at least four in the past) as well as more sessions.

Apart from anything else, I would have thought that Phoenix is a much more attractive holiday destination if you are looking to add some leisure time to the trip

# re: Fox Forward - A worthy, but misguided initiative

Sunday, March 12, 2006 5:21 PM by Allen Pollard
ok Andy, you have given me something to think on.  I have not given up on Prague but If I do not get some confermation on the sessions soon I will go elsewhere. Pity, I enjoyed the place.
I will do some adding up.

What do you think?

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